6 billion yuan of energy-saving car subsidies can last for up to 9 months

On May 16, the executive meeting of the State Council decided to allocate 6 billion yuan to support the promotion of energy-saving vehicles with displacements of 1.6 liters and below.

This is considered to be the continuation of the special subsidy fund of 12 billion yuan arranged by the state in 2010. An additional 6 billion yuan can allow this policy to continue. The policy designers stand at a higher position, believing that expanding consumption of energy-saving products can not only stabilize growth, expand domestic demand, but also promote structural adjustment, energy conservation and emission reduction.

The aforementioned meeting called for the implementation of an energy efficiency "leader" system for subsidies including energy-saving appliances, and a higher subsidy standard for ultra-efficient products that meet the "leader" energy efficiency indicators; raise the entry threshold for energy efficiency, and speed up the revision of key energy use Product energy efficiency standards strengthen the reversal mechanism and role of standards.

The growth of the auto market is still sluggish. According to most industry insiders interviewed by this newspaper, this subsidy for energy-saving cars will give the auto market a boost. In the short term, there will be a number of timely response of private self-owned brand auto companies benefiting .

But there are also companies that are not optimistic about this policy. A senior executive of a self-owned brand company told this reporter: "For the auto market, a bicycle subsidy of 3,000 yuan does not affect whether consumers can buy a car. Therefore, some companies have models that meet the standards. However, it has not been declared to enter the catalog. Some companies believe that the profit of models below 1.6L is too low and they are unwilling to be involved."

Extend the subsidy for 6 to 9 months?

The state began to subsidize energy-saving vehicles below 1.6L in 2010. Based on the consumption guidance and environmental protection considerations for subsidy purposes, the state has increased the subsidy standards during the subsidy process.

In June 2010, the three national ministries and commissions launched several batches of "Energy-saving Products Benefiting People Project" energy-saving automobile promotion catalogs. All consumers purchase energy-saving automobiles on the catalog (cars with a displacement of 1.6L and below, and a car with a fuel consumption of less than 6.9L per 100 kilometers). Can get a subsidy of 3,000 yuan/vehicle.

Since then, relevant departments have released 6 batches of 420 models to enter the catalog. By the end of October 2011, the policy has subsidized 3.57 million vehicles, and the central government has arranged a total of 10.7 billion yuan in subsidies.

The subsidy standard implemented in October last year has been substantially increased, reducing the fuel consumption per 100 kilometers of the catalog models to 6.3L. Technical obstacles have reduced the subsidy range from the previous 420 models to 49 models, accounting for only 11.5 of the original subsidized models. %, and are mainly concentrated in Volkswagen and GM brands.

"Although the gap is only 0.6L, for many companies, this is a huge threshold." said Zhang Xin, an analyst at Guotai Junan Auto. A total of 12 enterprises were shortlisted in the seventh batch of energy-saving automobile promotion catalogs. Among them, two German enterprises in China have shortlisted 13 models, accounting for more than a quarter of the total number of shortlisted models.

"From the standard of fuel consumption per 100 kilometers from 6.9L to 6.3L, the trend of national policies is very favorable for companies with more advanced technological advantages, such as turbocharging and hybrid technology, and it is expected that they will still gain more policy advantages in the future. "A senior executive of a joint venture car company that has models that meet this standard said.

Judging from the data that has been released now, the effectiveness of the subsidy policy has been greatly reduced. The cumulative sales of subsidized cars from January to April this year are about 620,000. Based on the fixed subsidy of 3,000 yuan per vehicle, a total of 1.86 billion yuan has been subsidized. In addition to the previous subsidies, the actual subsidy amount has exceeded the original special subsidy fund of 12 billion yuan.

Relevant government departments also hinted earlier that the subsidy policy will not be terminated in the short term. To this end, on May 16, the state added 6 billion yuan in subsidies. Because it is necessary to make up for the previous actual subsidy of more than 12 billion yuan, and after the new standard last year, only a batch of models into the catalog were announced in October, and a new batch of models into the catalog will be announced soon, and the subsidy will increase. According to current standards, 6 billion yuan of subsidy funds are expected to be subsidized for 6 to 9 months.

Although the specific subsidy rules have not been released, there has been a lot of speculation from the outside world. Some industry veterans believe that the current standard is established and will not change in the short term. If it is to be changed, it may be an adjustment in the amount of bicycle subsidies.

Stable GDP growth

Auto subsidies suddenly come, with the background of the macroeconomic situation. In the first three months of this year, China's GDP grew by 8.1%, which was not only a fall in the fifth quarter, but also a fall that exceeded market expectations.

Based on the continuation of control policies, the real estate downturn is difficult to change in the short term. Stabilizing GDP growth requires other powerful means. According to relevant data, the auto industry directly or indirectly drives GDP by nearly 10%.

However, the auto market is also facing an unoptimistic situation. From January to April this year, the cumulative auto sales were 6.42 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%. The auto industry “dragged back” for GDP growth.

Relevant data shows that cars with displacements of 1.6 liters and below account for about 68% of total car sales, stimulating consumption in this market, which can have a strong pulling effect. According to data released by Haitong Securities, the 3.57 million vehicles that received subsidies in the first phase directly drove nearly 300 billion yuan in consumption.

CITIC Securities estimates that based on the total subsidy of 6 billion yuan and the average vehicle subsidy of 3,000 yuan, this subsidy can boost the sales of passenger cars with a displacement of 1.6 liters and below, which is approximately equivalent to the total sales of passenger cars in 2011. Of 14%.

Research institutions are quite optimistic about the pulling effect of the policy in the downturn in the market. Shenyin Wanguo released a report saying that it will stimulate the annual sales growth of narrow passenger cars by 1-2%. CITIC Securities is more optimistic: "It is estimated that under the guidance of policies, the growth rate of car sales in 2012 is expected to rebound to more than 7%, and the sales of passenger vehicles may increase by more than 10%."

The companies that have already entered the seventh batch of models in the catalogue will continue to benefit from them. Thanks to turbocharging technology, the Volkswagen brand has 13 cars among them, while the independent brands benefited more from BYD and Changan, each of which has three models that can continue the policy subsidy. Automobile companies such as SAIC and Great Wall are also adjusting their models, hoping to enter the next batch of subsidy catalogs.

From October last year to May this year, the relevant government departments have not been able to publish a new batch of energy-saving vehicle promotion catalogs, adding to the doubts about whether the subsidy funds of 6 billion yuan will be adjusted in the way of subsidies. The official explanation is that the delay in publishing a new batch of energy-saving vehicle promotion catalogues is because it takes time for companies to declare and actual measurement by government departments.



  There are also people who are bearish on market expectations. In Zhang Xin’s view, one cannot be too optimistic to estimate the impact of this subsidy on the market. "The specific details and subsidy time have not been released, and the effect of the subsidy can not be too high. A small subsidy cannot affect the auto market. Those who should buy a car will buy it. In fact, a small subsidy on a bicycle is not as good as a subsidy for the city. To improve the car-using environment, rather than simply supporting car manufacturers."