The price of refined oil has been lowered for the first time this year, with every 0.27 yuan drop in gasoline

The National Development and Reform Commission fulfilled its promise to "cut oil prices in a timely manner."

On May 9, the day after the crude oil change rate in the three places broke the -4% "red line", the National Development and Reform Commission announced that it would lower the high retail price of refined oil ^ this morning, and the range was determined to be gasoline 330 yuan/ton, equivalent to 0.27 yuan/ Liter (No. 93 gasoline); diesel 310 yuan / ton, equivalent to 0.26 yuan / liter. This is also the first reduction in refined oil prices in seven months, and the rate of reduction is the largest since the implementation of the current refined oil pricing mechanism.

Reduce oil prices can help control inflation

The last time the National Development and Reform Commission lowered oil prices back to October 9, 2011. Since then, international oil prices have continued to rise, and domestic oil prices have also risen twice this year for a total of 900 yuan/ton. However, since April, international oil prices have fluctuated and fallen, and the rate of change in the three places has continued to fall.

"The oil price cut this time is fully in line with industry expectations, and the price adjustment response is also very fast. If the conditions are met, the price will be reduced immediately." Zhao Jingmin, a refined oil analyst at the Business Society, said that the reduction is basically in place, and it is fully in line with the international market.

In fact, due to sales pressure and rising inventories, domestic gasoline and diesel wholesale prices have continued to decline since last month. Monitoring data shows that on May 9 the domestic average wholesale price of No. 93 gasoline was 10,275 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the high on March 20, and the average wholesale price of No. 0 diesel was 8815 yuan/ton, compared with March 20. It fell 220 yuan/ton daily.

Zhao Jingmin believes that it is unlikely that gasoline and diesel prices will continue to fall after the price reduction of gasoline and diesel is realized. And as the bearish sentiment fades away, terminal operators and social traders may take the opportunity to absorb on dips and start a new round of restocking cycle. The weak oil market and the weak buying and selling situation will gradually reverse, and gasoline and diesel prices may fall first. After rising.

"In addition, the price of No. 93 gasoline in many cities will fall below 8 yuan after the current oil price cut, and return to the 7 yuan range. Previously, due to the strong impact of domestic oil price reduction expectations, gas stations everywhere have continued to reduce prices. After the price adjustment, gasoline and diesel prices have been reduced. The existence of the wholesale price difference will leave room for gas station promotion and profit." Zhao Jingmin said.

As for the impact of price adjustments on CPI, she said that because oil prices have a small weight in CPI, the direct impact of oil price reductions on CPI is small, but it is a favorable factor for controlling inflation and can indirectly alleviate the cost pressure of agricultural products.

Aviation logistics and other industries welcome good news

For many domestic oil industries, the reduction in oil prices will reduce the production and transportation costs of refined oil-related industries, which is not limited to the "long-term drought".

“Domestic transportation and aviation logistics will ease cost pressure after the oil price is lowered, which is a big plus. At the same time, the lower oil price reduces the cost of cars and helps boost car sales." Zhao Jingmin said.

In addition, it is currently in the peak season for oil use for spring farming. The lower oil price will reduce the cost of agricultural production and transportation of agricultural products, which will eventually be reflected in the consumer terminal and play a role in restraining prices. For industries such as logistics and taxis, lower refined oil prices will also directly reduce transportation costs and increase profit margins.

Zhongyu Information Market Analyst Sang Xiao said that the lower oil price will affect the cost of transportation, storage, post, industrial, agricultural, wood, fishery, construction, wholesale, retail, accommodation, and catering industries. From the perspective of gasoline consumption structure, the proportion used in transportation, storage and postal industry is close to half. In terms of diesel, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and construction are also the main aspects of diesel terminal oil demand.

"However, the impact of the lower oil price on PetroChina, Sinopec and the majority of local refineries is exactly the opposite. The two previous oil price hikes have significantly reduced losses in the refining businesses of PetroChina and Sinopec. However, after the oil price cut this time, the refinery's refining profit will decrease." Zhao Jingmin said.

In her view, the price adjustment has a greater negative impact on the vast number of local refineries. Because the wholesale price of refined oil has fallen sharply and the demand side is relatively sluggish, the refining business of local refineries is already in deep loss.